QE2 and Its Effects: Treasury Bond Rates Rise

Treasury bond rates are rising.  The graph below clearly indicates this.  The bond investors do not believe Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s bullcrap.  That’s why rates are rising.  They are wising up.  Rising rate indicate that some bond investors are shuffling their feet quietly toward the exit.  There will be a panic at some point.  They all think they can get out of the burning building in time.  The burning building is the bond market.  Not all of them will.

On a related note, American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) reports 4Q2010 earnings this afternoon.  I’m curious to see how their net interest rate spread holds up.  Notice that short term rates have barely moved since the Federal Reserve started to implement QE2.  Check back later this afternoon for my blog on AGNC earnings.

QE2 and Its Effects: Treasury Bond Rates Rise

Gary North

Feb. 7, 2011

Here is what the Federal Open Market Committee announced on November 3, 2010.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20101103a.htm

Here is what has happened to bond rates since then.


  

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx

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Published in: on February 8, 2011 at 11:52 am  Leave a Comment  

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