Examples of Speculative and Investment Common Stocks You’ve Got to See.

The second edition of Security Analysis provided several examples of speculative and investment common stocks.  The examples are so illustrative, but they are from 1940.  I wanted to bring the text of this section of the book into this blog with examples from several of the stocks that I have blogged about on www.myhighdividendstocks.com .

I chose the following stocks for examples: Goldcorp (GG), Proctor & Gamble (PG), American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), Seadrill Limited (SDRL), Safe Bulkers (SB), and AT&T.  Let me tell you why I chose these stocks.  I wanted to also include Terra Nitrogen (TNH), but the results table would have been too unreadable.

Goldcorp (GG)  I used to own Goldcorp when it was priced in the high teens and twenties.  I wanted to revisit it because it is also in many gold mining stock funds such as FSAGX.  I currently own FSAGX in my 401(k) account and I’m considering selling it.  You will see why momentarily.

Proctor & Gamble (PG)  This stock is often written about in dividend aristocrat articles.  It pays a modest dividend and grows its dividend annually like clockwork.  Many people watch this dividend stock.

American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC)  I’ve included it because I have written many articles on this ultra-high dividend stock.  I don’t like it because its earnings can’t support the current dividend payout.  It balance sheet is horrible like all financial institutions (e.g. banks).

Seadrill Limited (SDRL)  This stock turned up on one of my high dividend stock screens and warrants further investigation to determine if it is speculative or investment grade.

Safe Bulkers (SB)  I love this high dividend stock with earning power and a strong balance sheet.  You will see why in moments.

AT&T (T)  I pays almost a 6% dividend and it is and dividend aristocrat.  Many eyes are on this one so I want to know at what price is it a value buy.

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Examples of Speculative and Investment Common Stocks.  Our definition of an investment basis for common-stock purchases is a variance with the Wall Street practice in respect to common stocks of high rating.  For such issues a price of considerably more than 20 times average earnings is held to be warranted, and furthermore these stocks are designated as “investment issues” regardless of the price at which they sell.  According to our view, the high prices paid for “the best common stocks” make these purchases essentially speculative, because they require future growth to justify them.  Hence common-stock investment operations, as we define them, will occupy a middle ground in the market, lying between low-price issues that are speculative because of doubtful quality and well-entrenched issues that are speculative, none the less, because of their high price.

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There were three groups of examples in Security Analysis.  Group A were common stocks speculative in December 1938 because of their high price (figures were adjusted to reflect changes in capitalization).  The companies in group A were: General Electric, Coca Cola, and Johns-Manville.  Proctor & Gamble and AT&T sort of fit into the Group A category.

Group B were common stocks speculative in December 1938 because of their irregular record.  Group B in 1938 was comprised of the following companies: Goodyear Tire and Rubber, Simmons, and Youngstown Sheet and Tube.  American Capital Agency Corp., Seadrill Limited and Goldcorp are definitely Group B.  Goldcorp also has a poor divided and a high price.  AGNC is irregular with a high price.

Group C were common stocks meeting investment tests in December 1938 from the quantitative standpoint.  They included Adams-Millis, American Safety Razor, and J.J. Newberry.  I have never heard of any of these stocks.  The only stock in my example that makes this cut is Safe Bulkers.  This is why Safe Bulkers is in my best dividend stocks category.

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Comments on the Various Groups.  The companies listed in Group A are representative of the so-called “first-grade” or “blue-chip” industrials, which were particularly favored in the great speculation of 1928-1929 and in the markets of ensuing years.  They are characterized by a strong financial position, by presumably excellent prospects and in most cases by relatively stable or growing earnings in the past.  The market price of the shares; however, was higher than would be justified by their average earnings.  In fact the profits of the best year in the 1929-1938 decade were less than 8% of the December 1938 market price.  It is also characteristic of such issues that they sell for enormous premiums above the actual capital invested.

            The companies analyzed in Group B are obviously speculative, because of great instability of their earning records.  They show varying relationships of market price to average earnings, maximum earnings, and asset values.

            The common stocks shown in Group C are examples of those which meet specific and quantitative tests of investment quality.  These tests include the following:

1.      The earnings have been reasonably stable, allowing for the tremendous fluctuations in business conditions during the ten-year period.

2.      The average earnings bear a satisfactory ratio to market price.

3.      The financial set-up is sufficiently conservative, and the working-capital position is strong.

Although we do not suggest that common stock bought for investment be required to show asset values equal to the price paid, it is non the less characteristic of Group C that, as a whole, they will not sell for a huge premium above the companies’ actual resources.

            Common-stock investment, as we envisage it, will confine itself to issues making exhibits of the kind illustrated by Group C.  But the actual purchase of any such issue must require also that the purchaser be satisfied in his own mind that the prospects of the enterprise are at least reasonably favorable.

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Safe Bulkers is a dry bulk shipper with around sixteen ships rented out to various customers.  The dry bulk market suffering due to the global recession and a glut of ships built during the boom, but Safe Bulkers is well positioned to prosper in even that harsh environment.  Its prospects and the industries are good.

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